Mets at Pirates
NYM0–
PIT9Last play · Cristian Pache grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
Pirates100%
NYM 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 8 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ronny Simon doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Bryan Reynolds scores. Spencer Horwitz scores. (inning 1) — +16% Pirates
7Brandon Lowe homers (25) on a fly ball to right field.0–9
4Nick Gonzales doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Brett Baty. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd.0–8
4Spencer Horwitz walks.0–6
4Jake Mangum doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Henry Davis scores.0–5
3Jacob Gonzalez singles on a line drive to right fielder Brett Baty. Ronny Simon scores.0–4
1Ronny Simon doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Bryan Reynolds scores. Spencer Horwitz scores.0–3
1Nick Gonzales grounds out, pitcher Robert Stock to first baseman Jared Young. Jake Mangum scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.