Red Sox at Pirates
Last play · Ronny Simon strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Pirates0%
BOS 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 0 PIT
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / +111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -15% Red Sox
9Jahmai Jones singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Andruw Monasterio scores.4–0
9Andruw Monasterio doubles (22) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran scores.3–0
2Wilyer Abreu homers (22) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
