Red Sox at Pirates
Last play · Adley Rutschman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
BOS 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 7 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Esmerlyn Valdez doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ronny Simon scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 4) — +17% Pirates
9Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Eli White scores. Nick Sogard to 2nd.4–8
7Esmerlyn Valdez reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Caleb Durbin. Bryan Reynolds scores. Esmerlyn Valdez to 2nd.3–8
7Nick Sogard singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Jarren Duran scores. Eli White to 2nd.3–7
5Brandon Lowe homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Jacob Gonzalez scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–7
5Nick Sogard out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Mangum. Jarren Duran scores. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.2–4
5Andruw Monasterio singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.1–4
4Rafael Flores Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.0–4
4Esmerlyn Valdez doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ronny Simon scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
