Mets at Pirates
NYM11–
PIT1Last play · Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
NYM 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 10 – 1 PIT
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Robert Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 3) — -14% Mets
7Luis Robert Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum, deflected by second baseman Brandon Lowe. Bo Bichette scores.11–1
5Francisco Alvarez homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.10–1
4Jared Young singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Ronny Simon. Bo Bichette scores.9–1
4Bo Bichette doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Francisco Alvarez scores. A.J. Ewing scores. Francisco Lindor scores.8–1
3Jake Mangum homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.5–1
3Marcus Semien singles on a line drive to left fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Jared Young scores.5–0
3Luis Robert Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Bo Bichette scores.4–0
1Luis Robert Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronny Simon. Francisco Lindor scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.