Red Sox at Pirates
BOS3–
PIT8Last play · Eli White strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
BOS 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 7 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — +9% Pirates
7Nick Yorke singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Rafael Flores Jr. scores.3–8
5Connor Wong homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Jarren Duran scores. Anthony Seigler scores.3–7
3Henry Davis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Jake Mangum scores.0–7
3Nick Yorke singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Bryan Reynolds scores. Brandon Lowe scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd.0–6
3Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.0–4
3Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Jared Triolo scores. Esmerlyn Valdez to 3rd.0–3
1Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–2
1Bryan Reynolds doubles (30) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.