Tigers at Pirates
DET8–
PIT5Last play · Bryan Reynolds called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates0%
DET 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 5 – 1 PIT
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Gleyber Torres scores. (inning 2) — -15% Tigers
6Henry Davis singles on a line drive to center fielder Max Clark. Nick Yorke scores.8–5
6Nick Yorke doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Nick Gonzales scores. Rafael Flores Jr. scores. Jake Mangum scores.8–4
6Brett Callahan singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Colt Keith scores. Zach McKinstry scores. Hao-Yu Lee to 2nd.8–1
6Hao-Yu Lee walks. Kevin McGonigle scores. Colt Keith to 3rd. Zach McKinstry to 2nd.6–1
5Henry Davis grounds into a force out, shortstop Javier Báez to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Jake Mangum scores. Nick Yorke out at 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Hao-Yu Lee.5–1
5Max Clark singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Brett Callahan to 3rd. Max Clark to 2nd.5–0
2Kevin McGonigle homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Gleyber Torres scores.4–0
1Hao-Yu Lee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Colt Keith scores. Zach McKinstry to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.