Tigers at Pirates
DET3–
PIT4Last play · Brandon Lowe homers (27) on a fly ball to right field.
Win probability
Pirates100%
DET 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 1 PIT
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Flores Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — +42% Pirates
9Brandon Lowe homers (27) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
9Rafael Flores Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
7Rafael Flores Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
5Kevin McGonigle doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Gleyber Torres out at home on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to second baseman Nick Gonzales to catcher Henry Davis.3–1
5Gleyber Torres singles on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Max Clark scores. Hao-Yu Lee to 3rd.2–1
3Kevin McGonigle out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Colt Keith to 2nd.1–1
1Oneil Cruz singles on a line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.