Tigers at Pirates
Last play · Hao-Yu Lee grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
Pirates100%
DET 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 3 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. (inning 5) — +30% Pirates
8Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Jared Triolo scores.1–4
5Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Rafael Flores Jr. scores. Jared Triolo to 2nd.1–3
5Oneil Cruz homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.1–2
5Brett Callahan homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
