Giants at Pirates
Last play · Rafael Flores Jr. reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Osleivis Basabe. Brandon Lowe scores.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SF 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 5 – 11 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nate Furman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Osleivis Basabe scores. Grant McCray scores. (inning 8) — -34% Giants
9Rafael Flores Jr. reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Osleivis Basabe. Brandon Lowe scores.12–13
8Nate Furman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Osleivis Basabe scores. Grant McCray scores.12–12
8Drew Cavanaugh doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Jonah Cox scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Osleivis Basabe to 3rd.10–12
8Osleivis Basabe walks. Bryce Eldridge scores. Jonah Cox to 3rd. Jung Hoo Lee to 2nd.8–12
7Brandon Lowe homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field.7–12
6Jung Hoo Lee grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Turner Hill scores. Bryce Eldridge to 3rd. Jonah Cox to 2nd.7–11
6Jonah Cox singles on a ground ball to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Christian Koss scores. Turner Hill to 3rd. Bryce Eldridge to 2nd.6–11
3Oneil Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Turner Hill. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.5–11
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
