Giants at Padres
Last play · Freddy Fermin strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
SF 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 4 – 3 SD
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+126 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jung Hoo Lee doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Heliot Ramos scores. Matt Chapman scores. (inning 1) — -16% Giants
9Jung Hoo Lee singles on a fly ball to left fielder Nick Castellanos. Jared Oliva scores.9–3
6Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Rafael Devers scores.8–3
6Heliot Ramos singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Patrick Bailey scores. Willy Adames scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.7–3
6Willy Adames singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Harrison Bader scores. Patrick Bailey to 2nd.5–3
3Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jackson Merrill scores.4–3
3Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Casey Schmitt. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.4–2
3Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.4–1
3Matt Chapman homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
