Giants at Padres
SF1–
SD7Last play · Harrison Bader strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+126 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Matt Chapman. Gavin Sheets scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd. (inning 5) — +10% Padres
8Xander Bogaerts walks. Gavin Sheets scores. Bryce Johnson to 3rd. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.1–7
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Matt Chapman, deflected by pitcher José Buttó. Jake Cronenworth scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd. Bryce Johnson to 2nd.1–6
8Ramón Laureano homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Manny Machado scores.1–5
7Harrison Bader singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryce Johnson. Luis Arraez scores.1–3
6Gavin Sheets doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.0–3
5Xander Bogaerts reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Matt Chapman. Gavin Sheets scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.0–2
1Manny Machado reaches on a missed catch error by first baseman Casey Schmitt, assist to third baseman Matt Chapman. Jackson Merrill scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.