Rockies at Padres
Last play · Xander Bogaerts hits a grand slam (2) to left field. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Sullivan doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kyle Karros scores. (inning 11) — -44% Rockies
12Xander Bogaerts hits a grand slam (2) to left field. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores.3–7
11Luis Campusano doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Xander Bogaerts scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.3–3
11Brett Sullivan doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kyle Karros scores.3–2
10Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jake Cronenworth scores.2–2
10Tyler Freeman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Willi Castro scores. Brenton Doyle to 2nd.2–1
3Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Freddy Fermin scores.1–1
3Brenton Doyle homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
