Rockies at Padres
Last play · Gavin Sheets homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores. (inning 9) — +31% Padres
9Gavin Sheets homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado scores.2–5
8Jordan Beck singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Hunter Goodman scores. Tyler Freeman to 3rd.2–2
8Hunter Goodman singles on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Brenton Doyle scores.1–2
5Luis Campusano homers (1) on a line drive to left field.0–2
5Gavin Sheets homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
