Rockies at Padres
Last play · TJ Rumfield strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+184 / -226
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Sullivan doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Johnson. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Brenton Doyle scores. (inning 5) — -19% Rockies
7Jackson Merrill homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–7
6Ramón Laureano homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Ty France scores.2–6
5Manny Machado singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Jackson Merrill scores.2–4
5Brett Sullivan doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Johnson. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Brenton Doyle scores.2–3
4Ty France homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
2Freddy Fermin out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Ty France scores.0–2
1Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Ramón Laureano scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
