Rockies at Padres
COL5–
SD9Last play · Ezequiel Tovar pops out to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 4 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+184 / -226
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ramón Laureano homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Miguel Andujar scores. Freddy Fermin scores. (inning 4) — +38% Padres
8Mickey Moniak singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Ezequiel Tovar scores.5–9
6Jackson Merrill doubles (3) on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy, deflected by shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Jake Cronenworth scores. Ramón Laureano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.4–9
6Fernando Tatis Jr. walks. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.4–7
4Ramón Laureano homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Miguel Andujar scores. Freddy Fermin scores.4–6
3Manny Machado homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Jackson Merrill scores.4–3
3Jackson Merrill grounds into a force out, first baseman Troy Johnston to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Ramón Laureano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 2nd. Jackson Merrill to 1st.4–1
3Mickey Moniak homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
3Edouard Julien homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.