Mariners at Padres
Last play · J.P. Crawford grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Padres100%
SEA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill scores. (inning 3) — +23% Padres
8Xander Bogaerts singles on a fly ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Jackson Merrill scores.1–4
3Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill scores.1–3
3Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Ramón Laureano scores.1–1
2Dominic Canzone out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
