Mariners at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
SEA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 6 – 0 SD
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 9) — +55% Padres
9Jackson Merrill doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano scores.6–7
9Ramón Laureano singles on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ty France scores. Luis Campusano to 2nd.6–5
9Luis Campusano singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Gavin Sheets scores. Ty France to 3rd.6–4
9Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Raley. Manny Machado scores.6–3
6Xander Bogaerts homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Jackson Merrill scores.6–2
5Luke Raley homers (4) on a line drive to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores.6–0
4Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Randy Arozarena scores. Cole Young scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd.4–0
2Dominic Canzone doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
