Cubs at Padres
CHC7–
SD9Last play · Alex Bregman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
CHC 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Moisés Ballesteros hits a grand slam (5) to right field. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 3) — -49% Cubs
9Michael Busch grounds out to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.7–9
9Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Matt Shaw scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Pete Crow-Armstrong out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.6–9
8Gavin Sheets homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.5–9
7Ty France triples (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Matt Shaw. Xander Bogaerts scores. Miguel Andujar scores.5–8
5Nick Castellanos singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Manny Machado scores. Ty France scores. Nick Castellanos to 2nd.5–6
3Miguel Andujar grounds into a force out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts out at 2nd. Miguel Andujar to 1st.5–4
3Moisés Ballesteros hits a grand slam (5) to right field. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.5–3
2Seiya Suzuki homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.