White Sox at Padres
Last play · Luis Campusano strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
CWS 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -167
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Vargas singles on a soft line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tristan Peters scores. Andrew Benintendi scores. (inning 6) — -29% White Sox
7Tristan Peters out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Gavin Sheets to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Sam Antonacci scores. Edgar Quero to 2nd.4–0
7Edgar Quero singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Chase Meidroth scores. Sam Antonacci to 3rd.3–0
6Miguel Vargas singles on a soft line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tristan Peters scores. Andrew Benintendi scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
