White Sox at Padres
Last play · Luisangel Acuña strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
CWS 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 1 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -167
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Derek Hill homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Chase Meidroth scores. (inning 7) — -36% White Sox
8Xander Bogaerts singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Colson Montgomery. Ramón Laureano scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.3–4
7Derek Hill homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Chase Meidroth scores.3–3
4Freddy Fermin walks. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ty France to 3rd. Passed ball by catcher Drew Romo.1–3
4Manny Machado homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
4Miguel Andujar homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
3Drew Romo homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
