Cardinals at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Padres0%
STL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 7) — -19% Cardinals
7Masyn Winn triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Jordan Walker scores.2–1
4Alec Burleson homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Manny Machado scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
