Cardinals at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado lines out to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Padres0%
STL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 0 SD
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Wetherholt singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Masyn Winn scores. Nathan Church scores. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt scores. Fielding error by right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (inning 5) — -44% Cardinals
5Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Alec Burleson scores.6–0
5Nolan Gorman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.5–0
5JJ Wetherholt singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Masyn Winn scores. Nathan Church scores. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt scores. Fielding error by right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
