Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, third baseman Santiago Espinal to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Padres0%
LAD 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 3 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-198 / +162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Padres challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Alex Call scores. (inning 9) — -34% Dodgers
9Padres challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Alex Call scores.5–4
6Freddie Freeman homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.4–4
5Shohei Ohtani grounds out, second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. to first baseman Ty France. Teoscar Hernández scores.3–4
3Miguel Andujar homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–4
1Manny Machado homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Gavin Sheets scores.2–2
1Freddie Freeman homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Shohei Ohtani scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
