Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Andy Pages grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Manny Machado. Alex Call out at 3rd.
Win probability
Padres100%
LAD 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 1 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-174 / +143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rodolfo Durán grounds out, third baseman Max Muncy to first baseman Freddie Freeman. (inning 8) — +12% Padres
1Miguel Andujar homers (4) on a line drive to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
