Athletics at Padres
Last play · Jeff McNeil grounds out, first baseman Ty France to pitcher Mason Miller.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATH 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France grounds out, shortstop Darell Hernaiz to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Nick Castellanos scores. (inning 3) — +12% Padres
3Ty France grounds out, shortstop Darell Hernaiz to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Nick Castellanos scores.0–2
2Fernando Tatis Jr. hit by pitch. Jackson Merrill scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd. Sung-Mun Song to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
