Athletics at Padres
ATH3–
SD7Last play · Colby Thomas flies out to center fielder Bryce Johnson.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATH 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 3 – 3 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (8) on a line drive to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +24% Padres
8Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Miguel Andujar scores.3–7
8Gavin Sheets singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Rodolfo Durán scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd.3–6
7Ramón Laureano homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
5Nick Castellanos homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
4Henry Bolte singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Zack Gelof scores.3–2
1Manny Machado homers (8) on a line drive to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–2
1Brent Rooker grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Nick Kurtz scores.2–0
1Nick Kurtz doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Carlos Cortes scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.