Athletics at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. flies out to right fielder Lawrence Butler.
Win probability
Padres0%
ATH 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 4 – 0 SD
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — +10% Padres
9Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ramón Laureano. Lawrence Butler scores. Nick Kurtz to 3rd.5–2
7Ty France homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
6Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Miguel Andujar scores.4–1
4Carlos Cortes walks.4–0
2Alika Williams singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Henry Bolte scores.3–0
2Henry Bolte doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Zack Gelof scores.2–0
1Carlos Cortes homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
