Phillies at Padres
Last play · Ramón Laureano strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
PHI 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 SD
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Marsh homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Schwarber scores. (inning 7) — -22% Phillies
7Brandon Marsh homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Schwarber scores.3–0
1Kyle Schwarber homers (21) on a line drive to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
