Phillies at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill pops out to third baseman Alec Bohm.
Win probability
Padres0%
PHI 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trea Turner homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — -15% Phillies
9Trea Turner homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
6Trea Turner grounds into a force out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. Edmundo Sosa scores. Kyle Schwarber out at 2nd. Trea Turner to 1st.2–0
6Kyle Schwarber singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Justin Crawford scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
