Phillies at Padres
Last play · Ty France strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
PHI 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 4 – 2 SD
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (9) on a line drive to left field. Gavin Sheets scores. (inning 4) — +21% Padres
8Ramón Laureano homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
4Manny Machado homers (9) on a line drive to left field. Gavin Sheets scores.4–2
3Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd.4–0
3Trea Turner homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
2J.T. Realmuto homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
1Bryce Harper homers (13) on a line drive to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
