Mets at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill lines out sharply to left fielder Juan Soto.
Win probability
Padres0%
NYM 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 0 SD
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Young homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — -20% Mets
9Brett Baty singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. A.J. Ewing scores.5–0
5Luis Torrens homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Brett Baty scores.4–0
3Bo Bichette triples (1) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Luis Torrens scores.2–0
2Jared Young homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
