Mets at Padres
Last play · Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddy Fermin homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Sung-Mun Song scores. (inning 7) — +44% Padres
7Freddy Fermin homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Sung-Mun Song scores.2–3
7Marcus Semien homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
3Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Sung-Mun Song scores.1–1
2Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Marcus Semien scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
