Mets at Padres
NYM7–
SD3Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
NYM 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 2 SD
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddy Fermin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Samad Taylor scores. (inning 5) — +18% Padres
9Freddy Fermin doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Samad Taylor scores.7–3
8Carson Benge triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Jase Bowen. Brett Baty scores.7–2
6Carson Benge homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.6–2
6MJ Melendez homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
5Freddy Fermin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Samad Taylor scores.4–2
5A.J. Ewing flies into a sacrifice double play, right fielder Jase Bowen to third baseman Manny Machado. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto out at 3rd.4–0
5Jared Young singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Carson Benge scores. Bo Bichette to 3rd. Juan Soto to 2nd.3–0
2Marcus Semien homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.