Reds at Padres
CIN5–
SD3Last play · Jackson Merrill flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Padres0%
CIN 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Blake Dunn scores. (inning 11) — -44% Reds
11Sal Stewart homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Blake Dunn scores.5–3
10Samad Taylor singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Gavin Sheets scores.3–3
10Eugenio Suárez doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Spencer Steer scores.3–2
3Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jackson Merrill scores.2–2
3Jackson Merrill triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–1
3Spencer Steer reaches on a fielder's choice. JJ Bleday scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd. Fielding error by pitcher Lucas Giolito.2–0
2Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Matt McLain scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.