Reds at Padres
Last play · JJ Bleday strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
CIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 7) — +23% Padres
8Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Dunn. Samad Taylor scores.2–6
8Samad Taylor singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jase Bowen scores.2–5
7Samad Taylor hits a sacrifice bunt. Gavin Sheets scores. Jase Bowen to 2nd. Samad Taylor to 1st.2–3
7Gavin Sheets doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Xander Bogaerts scores.2–2
6Edwin Arroyo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Noelvi Marte scores.2–1
5Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. JJ Bleday scores.1–1
3Freddy Fermin homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
