Braves at Padres
Last play · Mike Yastrzemski challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Mike Yastrzemski called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 1 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (14) on a line drive to center field. (inning 4) — +19% Padres
4Manny Machado homers (14) on a line drive to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
