Reds at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (2) on a line drive to left field.
Win probability
Padres100%
CIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samad Taylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Jase Bowen scores. (inning 8) — +32% Padres
9Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (2) on a line drive to left field.4–5
8Samad Taylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Jase Bowen scores.4–4
8Gavin Sheets doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jackson Merrill scores.4–3
8Eugenio Suárez homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
7JJ Bleday homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
5Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Rodolfo Durán scores.2–2
4Spencer Steer homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores.2–1
1Manny Machado doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jackson Merrill scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
