Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Tommy Edman grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Sung-Mun Song to first baseman Miguel Andujar. Miguel Rojas out at 2nd. Tommy Edman out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres100%
LAD 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-216 / +176
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets scores. (inning 2) — +35% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Rodolfo Durán scores.1–7
8Rodolfo Durán doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Edman. Sung-Mun Song scores.1–6
8Sung-Mun Song singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Jase Bowen scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ty France out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Andy Pages to third baseman Max Muncy. Sung-Mun Song to 2nd.1–5
2Ty France homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets scores.1–3
2Mookie Betts homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
