Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill flies out to left fielder Alex Call.
Win probability
Padres0%
LAD 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-137 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — +22% Padres
9Ryan Ward singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Andy Pages scores.15–3
8Kyle Tucker singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Freddie Freeman scores. Max Muncy scores.14–3
8Tommy Edman grounds out, first baseman Gavin Sheets to pitcher David Morgan. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd. Max Muncy to 2nd.12–3
8Max Muncy singles on a ground ball to third baseman Will Wagner. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages to 3rd. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.11–3
7Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tommy Edman. Will Wagner scores. Freddy Fermin to 2nd.10–3
6Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Samad Taylor scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.10–2
6Mookie Betts homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages scores.10–1
6Freddie Freeman grounds out, second baseman Will Wagner to pitcher Ron Marinaccio. Alex Freeland scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd. Andy Pages to 2nd.7–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
