D-backs at Padres
Last play · Sung-Mun Song grounds out, first baseman Pavin Smith to pitcher Drey Jameson.
Win probability
Padres0%
AZ 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 7 – 0 SD
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Kepler homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. (inning 3) — -13% D-backs
6Nolan Arenado homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.8–0
4Geraldo Perdomo homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.7–0
3Max Kepler homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.6–0
3Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.3–0
1Max Kepler singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Max Kepler to 2nd. Max Kepler advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Samad Taylor.2–0
1Corbin Carroll strikes out swinging.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
