Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds into a double play, shortstop Mookie Betts to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Freddy Fermin out at 2nd. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres0%
LAD 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 1 SD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-137 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mookie Betts singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd. (inning 5) — -21% Dodgers
6Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Jackson Merrill scores.4–2
5Mookie Betts singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.4–1
5Freddie Freeman walks. Alex Freeland scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd. Andy Pages to 2nd.2–1
4Manny Machado homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
3Shohei Ohtani singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Alex Freeland scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
