Rockies at Padres
Last play · Rockies challenged (tag-up play), call on the field was upheld: Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jackson Merrill scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 4 – 3 SD
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+161 / -197
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado to 2nd. Fielding error by right fielder Jake McCarthy. (inning 8) — +32% Padres
9Rockies challenged (tag-up play), call on the field was upheld: Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jackson Merrill scores.7–8
8Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado to 2nd. Fielding error by right fielder Jake McCarthy.7–7
8Ezequiel Tovar walks. Cole Carrigg scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd. Tyler Freeman to 2nd.7–6
7Freddy Fermin reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Willi Castro. Ty France scores.6–6
7Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 2nd.6–5
7Mickey Moniak doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Ezequiel Tovar scores.6–4
7Ezequiel Tovar doubles (18) on a ground ball to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Willi Castro scores.5–4
6Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Luis Campusano to 2nd.4–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
