Rockies at Padres
Last play · Troy Johnston lines out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+161 / -197
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Ty France to 2nd. (inning 4) — +13% Padres
7Brett Sullivan singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Willi Castro scores. Tyler Freeman to 2nd.1–3
4Gavin Sheets out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.0–3
4Luis Rengifo grounds out to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.0–2
4Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Ty France to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
