Giants at Padres
Last play · Jesus Rodriguez flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. in foul territory.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Campusano singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Luis Rengifo scores. Ty France to 3rd. (inning 1) — +9% Padres
6Ty France out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Grant McCray. Luis Rengifo scores.0–7
4Ty France singles on a line drive to center fielder Grant McCray. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Rengifo scores.0–6
4Jase Bowen homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
3Xander Bogaerts grounds into a double play, first baseman Rafael Devers to shortstop Willy Adames. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Campusano out at 2nd. Xander Bogaerts out at 1st.0–3
1Luis Campusano singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Luis Rengifo scores. Ty France to 3rd.0–2
1Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
