Giants at Padres
Last play · Xander Bogaerts flies out to center fielder Grant McCray.
Win probability
Padres0%
SF 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 4 – 1 SD
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daniel Susac homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Willy Adames scores. (inning 2) — -18% Giants
5Daniel Susac out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Rafael Devers scores.4–1
2Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Grant McCray. Ty France scores.3–1
2Daniel Susac homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Willy Adames scores.3–0
1Rafael Devers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Heliot Ramos scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
