Giants at Padres
SF4–
SD5Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Ty France scores. (inning 2) — +20% Padres
8Rafael Devers homers (23) on a fly ball to left field.4–5
5Luis Campusano singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos, deflected by shortstop Willy Adames. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.3–5
5Osleivis Basabe homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
4Drew Cavanaugh grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France. Rafael Devers scores. Jung Hoo Lee to 3rd. Willy Adames to 2nd.2–4
4Willy Adames singles on a ground ball to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Bryce Eldridge scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Jung Hoo Lee to 2nd.1–4
2Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to shortstop Willy Adames. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.0–4
2Jackson Merrill homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Ty France scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.