Giants at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Xander Bogaerts scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.
Win probability
Padres100%
SF 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Osleivis Basabe doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jase Bowen. Rafael Devers scores. Willy Adames scores. Daniel Susac to 3rd. (inning 8) — -34% Giants
9Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Xander Bogaerts scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.5–6
8Osleivis Basabe doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jase Bowen. Rafael Devers scores. Willy Adames scores. Daniel Susac to 3rd.5–5
6Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Xander Bogaerts scores. Freddy Fermin out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Heliot Ramos to second baseman Osleivis Basabe.3–5
4Freddy Fermin homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Rengifo scores.3–4
3Willy Adames walks. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd. Rafael Devers to 2nd.3–2
3Osleivis Basabe homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Drew Gilbert scores.2–2
1Jackson Merrill doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Manny Machado scores. Ty France scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
