Astros at Padres
Last play · Yordan Alvarez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
HOU 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Padres favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Rengifo scores. Freddy Fermin scores. (inning 4) — +38% Padres
8Austin Hays homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Jase Bowen scores.2–7
6Gavin Sheets homers (15) on a line drive to right field.2–5
4Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Rengifo scores. Freddy Fermin scores.2–4
2Jackson Merrill homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
2Daulton Varsho homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Taylor Trammell scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
