Pirates at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
PIT 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+126 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (17) on a line drive to right field. (inning 9) — -34% Pirates
9Oneil Cruz homers (17) on a line drive to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
