Twins at Padres
Last play · Josh Bell strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Rengifo doubles (12) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Luis Campusano scores. Austin Hays scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. (inning 6) — +31% Padres
8Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (17) on a line drive to left center field.1–8
7Xander Bogaerts doubles (13) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Alan Roden. Austin Hays scores.1–7
7Jackson Merrill homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.1–6
6Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jase Bowen scores.1–5
6Luis Rengifo doubles (12) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Luis Campusano scores. Austin Hays scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.1–3
5Brooks Lee homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
